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Since 2003, the small mid-east nation of Kuwait has effectively prevented its currency, the Dinar, from fluctuating by fixing it to the USD. Last week, however, it became the latest casualty of a falling dollar and was forced to scrap its peg and instead link the Dinar to a basket of currencies. While the stability that accompanied the peg was certainly a benefit, as was the sudden boon provided to Kuwait’s economy by an artificially cheap currency, the Central Bank ultimately decided that the countrys economy could no longer bear the inflationary pressures generated by the peg. Many Kuwaiti senior policymakers fought the change tooth and nail because they fear it will hinder the regions efforts to form a common currency, but Kuwait insists that it is still committed to a common currency. The Kuwait Times reports:

The decision will help reduce imported inflation. The planning ministry said last week that the inflation rate reached 5.1 percent in the first quarter.

Read More: http://www.kuwaittimes.net/read_news.php?newsid=MTY5MTY4MDA2MA==

Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | Jun 11 07 14:17 GMT |
Forex Mid-Day Technical Report Markets Quietly in Tight Range

Markets are generally quiet today except that Kiwi tumbled sharply after RBNZ’s intervention in Asia. But after all, markets started to calm down on this as the day goes. Also Kiwi is now drawing support from 0.8470/80 support which also coincide with 38.2% retracement of recent rise. Mixed PPI from UK didn’t offer any catalyst for the markets and dollar continues to trade in tight range against majors, except advancing further against the Swiss Franc. Traders are cautiously positioning for a week that’s heavy on data, including tomorrow’s CPI inflation from UK.

UK PPI output stabilized in May, rising 2.5% y/y to match the prior unrevised month’s result. Input prices, meanwhile rose 1.2% y/y last month, up from downwardly revised -0.8% in the previous month. Data from Canada saw new housing price index rising more than expected by 0.8% in Apr while capacity utilization rose to 83.0%. USD/CAD has little reaction to the data and remains in tight range. EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3315; (P) 1.3374; (R1) 1.3430; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

EUR/USD continues to consolidate in tight range above 1.3320 today. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 1.3375 minor resistance holds. Break of 1.3320 low will encourage further fall towards next downside target of 61.8% retracement of 1.2865 to 1.3681 at 1.3177 first. Above 1.3375 will suggest stronger recovery is underway, but upside should be limited by 1.3437 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 1.3553 to 1.3320 at 1.3437) and bring another fall.

In the bigger picture, break of 1.3364 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2865 to 1.3681 at 1.3369) was a significant development as it’s now confirmed that rise from 1.2865 has ended at 1.3681 already. More importantly, with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD and RSI, rally from 1.2483 has possibly ended too.

Also, up trend from 1.1639 is interpreted as having firs move completed with three waves up to 1.2978, subsequent sideway consolidation completed at 1.2483. Rise from 1.2483 met target zone of 1.3668 and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822 already. Hence, completion of rise from 1.2483 will indicate completion of whole up trend from 1.1639 too.

Focus is now on medium term rising channel support (now at 1.3072) and 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3037). Sustained break of this support zone will confirm that whole up trend from 1.1639 has ended and turn medium term outlook bearish. On the upside, above 1.3553 is needed to indicate fall from 1.3681 has completed and is merely a correction in the medium term up trend only. However, in such case, a retest of 1.3681 would be seen and the rebound could extend further towards 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. But focus will remain on reversal signal as even in such case, the up trend from 1.1639 is still expected to conclude between 1.3668 and 1.3822.

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9615; (P) 1.9703; (R1) 1.9785; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

Cable continues to consolidate above 1.9621 after drawing support from the mentioned medium term rising channel. At this point, intraday bias will remain on the downside as long as 1.9714 minor resistance holds. Below 1.9621 will encourage further fall to next downside target of 1.9545 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.9183 to 2.0132 at 1.9546). Above 1.9714 will bring stronger recovery but upside should be limited by 1.9792 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 1.9968 to 1.9621 at 1.9795) and bring another fall.

In the bigger picture, fall from 2.0132 is still in progress with rebound from 1.9676 being corrective in nature, with three subwaves and met 100% projection target. More importantly, this 2.0132 could indeed be an important medium term top. Firstly, the whole up trend from 1.7047 is not clearly impulsive. Our interpretation is that rally from 1.7047 ended with three waves up to 1.9024. Subsequent correction ended at 1.8090. Rally from 1.8090 has already met mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.7047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067. Secondly, regardless of the larger trend, rise from 1.8090 can be interpreted as being a five wave sequence with first wave ended at 1.9142, second at 1.8517, third at 1.9913 and fourth at 1.9183. The channeling property supports this interpretation too. In such case, the fifth wave rally from 1.9183 has also met target of 61.8% projection of 1.8517 to 1.9913 from 1.9183 at 2.0046 too. With bearish divergence condition remains in weekly MACD and RSI, as well as daily MACD and key 2.0106 resistance (92 high) not decisively taken out, 2.0132 could be the important medium term top already.

Focus is now indeed on the medium term rising channel support and firm break will indicate that whole rally from 1.8090 has completed and add much credence to the case that an important medium term top is already formed and put focus to 1.9183 low. However, above 1.9968 will again argue that fall from 2.0132 is merely a short term correction and in that case, with cable still staying within the medium term rising channel, a retest of 2.0132 high could be seen before making an important top finally.

USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2268; (P) 1.2316; (R1) 1.2398; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/.

USD/CHF’s rise from 1.2146 extends further to 1.2390 today. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.2323 minor support holds. Next upside target will be 1.2571 high. Touching of 1.2349 minor support will turn intraday outlook consolidative first. But downside should be contained well above 1.2250 support and bring another rise.

In the bigger picture USD/CHF should have completed a medium term head and shoulder bottom formation (ls: 1.1919, h: 1.1878, rs: 1.1993) which should also confirm the completion of whole down trend from 1.3283. At this point, the neck line (1.2768 to 1.2571, now at 1.2321) was taken out already. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2571 to 1.1993 at 1.2350 is adding much credence to this case. Break of 1.2571 will confirm the head and shoulder formation and have medium term outlook turned bullish for 1.2768 resistance and then 1.3283 high.

On the downside, it will take a break below 1.2146 support to indicate the rally from 1.1993 support has completed. In such case, favor will be switched back to the case that choppy price actions from 1.1919 could merely be part of a medium term triangle consolidation. And, down trend from 1.3283 should still resume after completing such consolidation in such case.

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.04; (P) 121.43; (R1) 122.09; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

USD/JPY continues to trade inside established range of 120.78 to 122.13 today. As discussed before, fall from 122.13 together with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI as well daily MACD’s turn below signal line indicate that 122.13 should at least be a short term top. Hence, even though further recovery could not be ruled out, short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 122.17 key resistance holds and another fall is still in favor. Below 120.78 will bring retest of short term rising trend line support (now at 120.30).

In the bigger picture, since the rally from 115.13 is not clearly impulsive, it’s being treated as part of a consolidation pattern that started at 122.17. Having said that, upside of this rise will likely be limited by 122.17 and bring another fall to retest 115.13 low before finishing the consolidation. The signal of a short term top and failure to take out 122.17 key resistance is supporting this view so far. Break of mentioned short term rising trend line will add more weight to this case which should be confirmed by sustained break of 119.43 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 115.13 to 122.13 at 119.46).

However, strong break of 122.17 resistance will indicate that the correction from 122.17 is already completed at 115.13. That is, the current rise from there represents resumption of the whole up trend from 108.99. In such case, the up trend is expected to extend further to 61.8% projection of 108.99 to 122.17 from 115.13 at 123.28 first.

EUR/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 162.05; (P) 162.46; (R1) 163.17; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

EUR/JPY continues to trade sideway above 161.76 today but still, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 162.91 minor resistance holds and further fall is expected towards next downside target of 159.60 support. Above 162.91 will indicate a short term low is probably formed at 161.76 and bring stronger recovery.

In the bigger picture, sharp decline from 164.59 confirmed that a short term top is in place at 164.59 with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI already. More importantly, whole up trend from 130.60 is interpreted as having first wave up ended at 143.60, subsequent correction ended at 137.167. The third wave up ended at 159.63 while fourth wave correction has ended at 150.75. Rise from there represents the final advance in this structure, and could have ended at 164.59, just missing target of 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64. In other words, 164.59 could indeed be the top of the whole rise from 130.60.

Focus is now on 159.30/60 support zone (38.2% retracement of 150.75 and 164.59 at 159.30). Break of this support zone will add more weight to case that 164.59 is indeed the important medium term top. Further decline should then be seen towards medium term rising channel support (now at 153.98) and 55 weeks EMA (now at 154.16). Sustained break of this important support will confirm such case and turn medium term outlook bearish for 150.75 support first.

However, strong rebound from 159.60 will switch favor to the case that EUR/JPY could merely be in sideway consolidation to the rise from 150.75 only and another medium term rally could be seen after finishing such consolidation. Though, sustained break of 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 is still needed to confirm such case.

Forex News Digest

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aE.W3NSKQYfI&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=a1TVT2_mDU6g&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aOLyihiqjrDo&refer=currency

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r971568067
Mon, 11 Jun 2007 10:59:00 GMT from Houston Chronicle

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r971559770
Mon, 11 Jun 2007 10:49:00 GMT from Bloomberg

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r971543928
Mon, 11 Jun 2007 10:30:00 GMT from Washington Post

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r971542902
Mon, 11 Jun 2007 10:28:00 GMT from The Australian

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r971527224
Mon, 11 Jun 2007 10:13:00 GMT from Reuters UK

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r971505885
Mon, 11 Jun 2007 09:46:00 GMT from Reserve Bank of New Zealand

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r971498925
Mon, 11 Jun 2007 09:39:00 GMT from Report On Business

http://www.actionforex.com/latest_news/latest_news/forex_news_20060323537/ Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Japan GDP annualised Q1 3.30% 3.10% 2.40%
23:50 JPY Japan GDP deflator Y/Y Q1 -0.30% -0.20% -0.20%
23:50 JPY Japan GDP rev. Q/Q Q1 0.80% 0.80% 0.60%
8:30 GBP U.K. PPI input M/M May 1.20% 0.70% 0.70% 0.20%
8:30 GBP U.K. PPI input Y/Y May 1.20% 1.00% -0.30% -0.80%
8:30 GBP U.K. PPI output M/M May 0.40% 0.40% 0.50%
8:30 GBP U.K. PPI output Y/Y May 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
8:30 GBP U.K. PPI core M/M May 0.20% 0.30% 0.10%
8:30 GBP U.K. PPI core Y/Y May 2.40% 2.30% 2.40%
8:30 GBP U.K. DCLG house prices Y/Y Apr 11.30% 11.00% 10.90%
12:30 CAD Canada New housing price idx Aor 0.80% 0.30% 0.30%
12:30 CAD Canada Capacity utilisation Q1 83.00% N/A 82.50% 82.40%
14:00 EUR ECB’s Trichet speaks
14:00 USD Fed’s Moskow speaks
Australia Market holiday

http://www.actionforex.com/general_information/forex_newsletters/forex_newsletter_200507301487/

It has been mooted on several currency forums, including here, that volatility is the enemy of the carry trade. For this reason, many analysts predicted that last weeks bond market collapse would send Japanese capital-which had been parked in the US-back to Japan, thus triggering a rapid appreciation in the Japanese Yen. But nothing of the sort materialized. The Yen was virtually unaffected by the weeks turmoil, as Japanese investors continue to invest in countries that offer high-yielding investments, such as New Zealand, which surprisingly raised interest rates to 8%. A Japanese senior official supported this notion, reports The Financial Times:

The size of any carry trades that would unwind is relatively small compared to the entire foreign-exchange market.

Read More: http://www.euro2day.gr/articlesfna/36416766/

Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | Jun 12 07 07:27 GMT |
Forex Daily Technical Report Sterling Boosted by Hawkish King ahead of CPI

Sterling rebounds against dollar and euro after BoE Governor Mervyn King signaled that interest rates in UK may have the rise further unless there are signs of inflationary pressure falls back in an address to the Welsh CBI. King said that BoE will “watching closely indicators of capacity pressures, pricing intentions and inflation expectations'’ and if these “remain elevated, the MPC may need to take further action.” Market’s focus is turning to today’s CPI release in UK which is expected to steadily grow at 0.3% mom with yoy rate slowing from 2.8% to 2.6% in May. That will be significant moderation from Mar’s high of 3.1% and will give much pressure to Sterling as the expected hike from BoE could be further delayed. However, should CPI fails to moderate, there should be increased speculation that BoE will need to act sooner in order to bring inflation down to its 2% targets. UK trade deficit will also be released and is expected to stay steady at around -7b level.

Elsewhere, dollar remains steadily firm against Euro and Swissy. No important economic data is scheduled to release today except Fed’s budget in May. Market’s focus will likely turn to speeches from Fed’s Moskow,Treasury Paulson and ex-Fed chairman Greenspan. Japan domestic CGPI rose 0.5% mom, 2.2% yoy in May while consumer confidence stays at 47.4. Kiwi stabilized after drawing support 0.7470/80 support which coincide with a 38.2% retracement level. But market remains cautious as there are rumors that RBNZ is checking prices again which could suggest further intervention. EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3335; (P) 1.3353; (R1) 1.3375; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

EUR/USD continues to consolidate in tight range above 1.3320 today. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 1.3375 minor resistance holds. Break of 1.3320 low will encourage further fall towards next downside target of 61.8% retracement of 1.2865 to 1.3681 at 1.3177 first. Above 1.3375 will suggest stronger recovery is underway, but upside should be limited by 1.3437 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 1.3553 to 1.3320 at 1.3437) and bring another fall.

In the bigger picture, break of 1.3364 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2865 to 1.3681 at 1.3369) was a significant development as it’s now confirmed that rise from 1.2865 has ended at 1.3681 already. More importantly, with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD and RSI, rally from 1.2483 has possibly ended too.

Also, up trend from 1.1639 is interpreted as having firs move completed with three waves up to 1.2978, subsequent sideway consolidation completed at 1.2483. Rise from 1.2483 met target zone of 1.3668 and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822 already. Hence, completion of rise from 1.2483 will indicate completion of whole up trend from 1.1639 too.

Focus is now on medium term rising channel support (now at 1.3072) and 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3037). Sustained break of this support zone will confirm that whole up trend from 1.1639 has ended and turn medium term outlook bearish. On the upside, above 1.3553 is needed to indicate fall from 1.3681 has completed and is merely a correction in the medium term up trend only. However, in such case, a retest of 1.3681 would be seen and the rebound could extend further towards 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. But focus will remain on reversal signal as even in such case, the up trend from 1.1639 is still expected to conclude between 1.3668 and 1.3822.

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9657; (P) 1.9679; (R1) 1.9709; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

Cable rebound to as high as 1.9753 after drawing support from mentioned medium term rising channel (now at 1.9631). Break of 1.9714 minor resistance indicates an intraday bottom is formed at 1.9621 and further rebound could be seen. However, we’d still expect upside to be limited by 1.9792 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 1.9968 to 1.9621 at 1.9795) and 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.9792) and bring another fall. Below 1.9687 will suggest rebound from 1.9621 has completed and turn focus back to this low. However, sustained break of 1.9792 will argue that the fall from 1.9968 has completed and turn short term outlook neutral again.

In the bigger picture, fall from 2.0132 is still in progress with rebound from 1.9676 being corrective in nature, with three subwaves and met 100% projection target. More importantly, this 2.0132 could indeed be an important medium term top. Firstly, the whole up trend from 1.7047 is not clearly impulsive. Our interpretation is that rally from 1.7047 ended with three waves up to 1.9024. Subsequent correction ended at 1.8090. Rally from 1.8090 has already met mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.7047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067.

Secondly, regardless of the larger trend, rise from 1.8090 can be interpreted as being a five wave sequence with first wave ended at 1.9142, second at 1.8517, third at 1.9913 and fourth at 1.9183. The channeling property supports this interpretation too. In such case, the fifth wave rally from 1.9183 has also met target of 61.8% projection of 1.8517 to 1.9913 from 1.9183 at 2.0046 too. With bearish divergence condition remains in weekly MACD and RSI, as well as daily MACD and key 2.0106 resistance (92 high) not decisively taken out, 2.0132 could be the important medium term top already.

Focus is now indeed on the medium term rising channel support and firm break will indicate that whole rally from 1.8090 has completed and add much credence to the case that an important medium term top is already formed and put focus to 1.9183 low. However, above 1.9968 will again argue that fall from 2.0132 is merely a short term correction and in that case, with cable still staying within the medium term rising channel, a retest of 2.0132 high could be seen before making an important top finally.

USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2352; (P) 1.2375; (R1) 1.2404; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/.

USD/CHF’s rally extended further to as high as 1.2400 before turning sideway. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.2347 minor support holds. Next upside target will be 1.2571 high. Touching of 1.2347 minor support will turn intraday outlook consolidative first. But downside should be contained well above 1.2250 support and bring another rise.

In the bigger picture USD/CHF should have completed a medium term head and shoulder bottom formation (ls: 1.1919, h: 1.1878, rs: 1.1993) which should also confirm the completion of whole down trend from 1.3283. At this point, the neck line (1.2768 to 1.2571, now at 1.2321) was taken out already. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2571 to 1.1993 at 1.2350 is adding much credence to this case. Break of 1.2571 will confirm the head and shoulder formation and have medium term outlook turned bullish for 1.2768 resistance and then 1.3283 high.

On the downside, it will take a break below 1.2146 support to indicate the rally from 1.1993 support has completed. In such case, favor will be switched back to the case that choppy price actions from 1.1919 could merely be part of a medium term triangle consolidation. And, down trend from 1.3283 should still resume after completing such consolidation in such case.

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.52; (P) 121.66; (R1) 121.83; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

USD/JPY continues to trade inside established range of 120.78 to 122.13 today. As discussed before, fall from 122.13 together with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI as well daily MACD’s turn below signal line indicate that 122.13 should at least be a short term top. Hence, even though further recovery could not be ruled out, short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 122.17 key resistance holds and another fall is still in favor. Below 120.78 will bring retest of short term rising trend line support (now at 120.30).

In the bigger picture, since the rally from 115.13 is not clearly impulsive, it’s being treated as part of a consolidation pattern that started at 122.17. Having said that, upside of this rise will likely be limited by 122.17 and bring another fall to retest 115.13 low before finishing the consolidation. The signal of a short term top and failure to take out 122.17 key resistance is supporting this view so far. Break of mentioned short term rising trend line will add more weight to this case which should be confirmed by sustained break of 119.43 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 115.13 to 122.13 at 119.46).

However, strong break of 122.17 resistance will indicate that the correction from 122.17 is already completed at 115.13. That is, the current rise from there represents resumption of the whole up trend from 108.99. In such case, the up trend is expected to extend further to 61.8% projection of 108.99 to 122.17 from 115.13 at 123.28 first.

EUR/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 162.19; (P) 162.49; (R1) 163.88; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

EUR/JPY continues to trade sideway above 161.76 but still, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 162.91 minor resistance holds and further fall is expected towards next downside target of 159.60 support. Above 162.91 will indicate a short term low is probably formed at 161.76 and bring stronger recovery.

In the bigger picture, sharp decline from 164.59 confirmed that a short term top is in place at 164.59 with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI already. More importantly, whole up trend from 130.60 is interpreted as having first wave up ended at 143.60, subsequent correction ended at 137.167. The third wave up ended at 159.63 while fourth wave correction has ended at 150.75. Rise from there represents the final advance in this structure, and could have ended at 164.59, just missing target of 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64. In other words, 164.59 could indeed be the top of the whole rise from 130.60.

Focus is now on 159.30/60 support zone (38.2% retracement of 150.75 and 164.59 at 159.30). Break of this support zone will add more weight to case that 164.59 is indeed the important medium term top. Further decline should then be seen towards medium term rising channel support (now at 153.98) and 55 weeks EMA (now at 154.16). Sustained break of this important support will confirm such case and turn medium term outlook bearish for 150.75 support first.

However, strong rebound from 159.60 will switch favor to the case that EUR/JPY could merely be in sideway consolidation to the rise from 150.75 only and another medium term rally could be seen after finishing such consolidation. Though, sustained break of 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 is still needed to confirm such case.

Forex News Digest

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aABYk1IhMFBg&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=a.NUy.sDlLnw&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=ahEjDC308318&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=ag0y_RUREdls&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=a3mDBRkzQgus&refer=currency

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r972438663
Tue, 12 Jun 2007 02:16:00 GMT from Bloomberg

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r972415785
Tue, 12 Jun 2007 01:49:00 GMT from Reuters UK

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r972371684
Tue, 12 Jun 2007 00:59:00 GMT from India Daily

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r972366560
Tue, 12 Jun 2007 00:54:00 GMT from The Age

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r972359712
Tue, 12 Jun 2007 00:45:00 GMT from The Australian

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r972329213
Tue, 12 Jun 2007 00:11:00 GMT from Bloomberg

http://www.actionforex.com/latest_news/latest_news/forex_news_20060323537/ Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Japan Domestic CGPI M/M May 0.50% 0.50% 0.80%
23:50 JPY Japan Domestic CGPI Y/Y May 2.20% 2.00% 2.20%
06:00 JPY Japan Consumer confidence May 47.4 47.8 47.4
06:00 EUR Germany WPI M/M May 0.30% 0.40% 0.80%
06:00 EUR Germany WPI Y/Y May 2.40% 2.60% 2.90%
08:30 GBP U.K. Trade balance (gbp) Apr -7.0B -7.048B
08:30 GBP U.K. CPI M/M May 0.30% 0.30%
08:30 GBP U.K. CPI Y/Y May 2.60% 2.80%
08:30 GBP U.K. RPI M/M May 0.40% 0.50%
08:30 GBP U.K. RPI Y/Y May 4.30% 4.50%
08:30 GBP U.K. RPI - X M/M May 0.40% 0.50%
08:30 GBP U.K. RPI - X Y/Y May 3.30% 3.60%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial prod’n M/M Apr 0.20% 0.40%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial prod’n Y/Y Apr 4.40% 3.70%
12:30 USD Treasury’s Paulson speaks
16:00 EUR ECB’s Mersch speaks
16:30 USD Alan Greenspan speaks
18:00 USD Fed budget May -70.0 B -42.9 B

http://www.actionforex.com/general_information/forex_newsletters/forex_newsletter_200507301487/

Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | Jun 12 07 14:36 GMT |
Forex Mid-Day Technical Report Dollar Extends Rally against Euro, Sterling Shrugs Off Tamer CPI

Dollar resumes rally against euro and swissy in early US session. With no important economic data out of US today, traders are still focusing on yield which keeps the greenback firm. Treasury Paulson continues to refrain from naming China as a currency manipulator in his speech today but calls for more flexibility from China in the short term. He emphasized again that he favored talks with China, not legislation. Markets will also pay attention to speeches from former Fed chairman greenspan but reactions could be muted ahead of tomorrow’s retail sales.

Meanwhile, sterling continues to be supported by overnight’s hawkish rhetoric from BoE and is not bothered by tamer than expected CPI data released today. CPI moderated more than expected from 2.8% yoy to 2.5% in May, which is the second successive slowing since reaching 3.1% in Mar. RPI and core RPI moderated to 4.3% and 3.3% yoy, inline with expectation. Today’s inflation data gave no urgency to BoE for another hike and is supportive to relaxation of the tightening bias. Trade deficit in UK came in narrower than expected at -6.21b. EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3335; (P) 1.3353; (R1) 1.3375; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

EUR/USD dips to marginally below 1.3320 low in early US session, suggesting that the fall from 1.3553 has resumed. At this point, as long as 1.3370 resistance holds further decline is expected to be seen towards next downside target of 61.8% retracement of 1.2865 to 1.3681 at 1.3177 first However, above 1.3370 will indicate that lengthier consolidation would be seen before another fall. But still, upside of recovery should still be limited by 1.3437 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 1.3553 to 1.3320 at 1.3437)

In the bigger picture, break of 1.3364 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2865 to 1.3681 at 1.3369) was a significant development as it’s now confirmed that rise from 1.2865 has ended at 1.3681 already. More importantly, with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD and RSI, rally from 1.2483 has possibly ended too.

Also, up trend from 1.1639 is interpreted as having firs move completed with three waves up to 1.2978, subsequent sideway consolidation completed at 1.2483. Rise from 1.2483 met target zone of 1.3668 and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822 already. Hence, completion of rise from 1.2483 will indicate completion of whole up trend from 1.1639 too.

Focus is now on medium term rising channel support (now at 1.3072) and 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3037). Sustained break of this support zone will confirm that whole up trend from 1.1639 has ended and turn medium term outlook bearish. On the upside, above 1.3553 is needed to indicate fall from 1.3681 has completed and is merely a correction in the medium term up trend only. However, in such case, a retest of 1.3681 would be seen and the rebound could extend further towards 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. But focus will remain on reversal signal as even in such case, the up trend from 1.1639 is still expected to conclude between 1.3668 and 1.3822.

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9657; (P) 1.9679; (R1) 1.9709; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

Cable’s rebound from 1.9621 continues today. As discussed before, an intraday bottom is formed at 1.9621 after drawing support from mentioned medium term rising channel. Further rebound could be seen as long as 1.9687 minor support holds. But we’d still expect upside to be limited by 1.9792 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 1.9968 to 1.9621 at 1.9795) and bring another fall. Below 1.9687 will suggest rebound from 1.9621 has completed and turn focus back to this low. However, sustained break of 1.9792 will argue that the fall from 1.9968 has completed and turn short term outlook neutral again.

In the bigger picture, fall from 2.0132 is still in progress with rebound from 1.9676 being corrective in nature, with three subwaves and met 100% projection target. More importantly, this 2.0132 could indeed be an important medium term top. Firstly, the whole up trend from 1.7047 is not clearly impulsive. Our interpretation is that rally from 1.7047 ended with three waves up to 1.9024. Subsequent correction ended at 1.8090. Rally from 1.8090 has already met mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.7047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067.

Secondly, regardless of the larger trend, rise from 1.8090 can be interpreted as being a five wave sequence with first wave ended at 1.9142, second at 1.8517, third at 1.9913 and fourth at 1.9183. The channeling property supports this interpretation too. In such case, the fifth wave rally from 1.9183 has also met target of 61.8% projection of 1.8517 to 1.9913 from 1.9183 at 2.0046 too. With bearish divergence condition remains in weekly MACD and RSI, as well as daily MACD and key 2.0106 resistance (92 high) not decisively taken out, 2.0132 could be the important medium term top already.

Focus is now indeed on the medium term rising channel support and firm break will indicate that whole rally from 1.8090 has completed and add much credence to the case that an important medium term top is already formed and put focus to 1.9183 low. However, above 1.9968 will again argue that fall from 2.0132 is merely a short term correction and in that case, with cable still staying within the medium term rising channel, a retest of 2.0132 high could be seen before making an important top finally.

USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2352; (P) 1.2375; (R1) 1.2404; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/.

USD/CHF’s rally extended further to as high as 1.2421 in early US session. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.2370 minor support holds. Next upside target will be 1.2571 high. Touching of 1.2370 minor support will turn intraday outlook consolidative first. But downside should be contained well above 1.2250 support and bring another rise.

In the bigger picture USD/CHF should have completed a medium term head and shoulder bottom formation (ls: 1.1919, h: 1.1878, rs: 1.1993) which should also confirm the completion of whole down trend from 1.3283. At this point, the neck line (1.2768 to 1.2571, now at 1.2321) was taken out already. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2571 to 1.1993 at 1.2350 is adding much credence to this case. Break of 1.2571 will confirm the head and shoulder formation and have medium term outlook turned bullish for 1.2768 resistance and then 1.3283 high.

On the downside, it will take a break below 1.2146 support to indicate the rally from 1.1993 support has completed. In such case, favor will be switched back to the case that choppy price actions from 1.1919 could merely be part of a medium term triangle consolidation. And, down trend from 1.3283 should still resume after completing such consolidation in such case.

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.52; (P) 121.66; (R1) 121.83; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

USD/JPY continues to trade inside established range of 120.78 to 122.13 but upside momentum is seen diminishing with 4 hours MACD turning down. As discussed before, fall from 122.13 together with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI as well daily MACD’s turn below signal line indicate that 122.13 should at least be a short term top. Hence, even though further recovery could not be ruled out, short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 122.17 key resistance holds and another fall is still in favor. Below 121.45 minor support will turn intraday bias to the downside for 120.78 low and break will bring retest of short term rising trend line support (now at 120.30).

In the bigger picture, since the rally from 115.13 is not clearly impulsive, it’s being treated as part of a consolidation pattern that started at 122.17. Having said that, upside of this rise will likely be limited by 122.17 and bring another fall to retest 115.13 low before finishing the consolidation. The signal of a short term top and failure to take out 122.17 key resistance is supporting this view so far. Break of mentioned short term rising trend line will add more weight to this case which should be confirmed by sustained break of 119.43 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 115.13 to 122.13 at 119.46).

However, strong break of 122.17 resistance will indicate that the correction from 122.17 is already completed at 115.13. That is, the current rise from there represents resumption of the whole up trend from 108.99. In such case, the up trend is expected to extend further to 61.8% projection of 108.99 to 122.17 from 115.13 at 123.28 first.

EUR/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 162.19; (P) 162.49; (R1) 163.88; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

EUR/JPY continues to trade sideway above 161.76 but still, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 162.91 minor resistance holds and further fall is expected towards next downside target of 159.60 support. Above 162.91 will indicate a short term low is probably formed at 161.76 and bring stronger recovery.

In the bigger picture, sharp decline from 164.59 confirmed that a short term top is in place at 164.59 with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI already. More importantly, whole up trend from 130.60 is interpreted as having first wave up ended at 143.60, subsequent correction ended at 137.167. The third wave up ended at 159.63 while fourth wave correction has ended at 150.75. Rise from there represents the final advance in this structure, and could have ended at 164.59, just missing target of 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64. In other words, 164.59 could indeed be the top of the whole rise from 130.60.

Focus is now on 159.30/60 support zone (38.2% retracement of 150.75 and 164.59 at 159.30). Break of this support zone will add more weight to case that 164.59 is indeed the important medium term top. Further decline should then be seen towards medium term rising channel support (now at 153.98) and 55 weeks EMA (now at 154.16). Sustained break of this important support will confirm such case and turn medium term outlook bearish for 150.75 support first.

However, strong rebound from 159.60 will switch favor to the case that EUR/JPY could merely be in sideway consolidation to the rise from 150.75 only and another medium term rally could be seen after finishing such consolidation. Though, sustained break of 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 is still needed to confirm such case.

Forex News Digest

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aSX1d6WpBpRc&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=a.NUy.sDlLnw&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=a9B0b3sdhT14&refer=currency

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r972924673
Tue, 12 Jun 2007 11:43:00 GMT from Reuters UK

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r972913088
Tue, 12 Jun 2007 11:32:00 GMT from Bloomberg

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r972872861
Tue, 12 Jun 2007 10:45:00 GMT from Financial Times

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r972865140
Tue, 12 Jun 2007 10:38:00 GMT from AP via MSN Money

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r972859745
Tue, 12 Jun 2007 10:33:00 GMT from New Zealand Herald

http://www.actionforex.com/latest_news/latest_news/forex_news_20060323537/ Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Japan Domestic CGPI M/M May 0.50% 0.50% 0.80%
23:50 JPY Japan Domestic CGPI Y/Y May 2.20% 2.00% 2.20%
06:00 JPY Japan Consumer confidence May 47.4 47.8 47.4
06:00 EUR Germany WPI M/M May 0.30% 0.40% 0.80%
06:00 EUR Germany WPI Y/Y May 2.40% 2.60% 2.90%
08:30 GBP U.K. Trade balance (gbp) Apr -6.32b -7.0B -7.048B -7.16b
08:30 GBP U.K. CPI M/M May 0.30% 0.30% 0.30%
08:30 GBP U.K. CPI Y/Y May 2.50% 2.60% 2.80%
08:30 GBP U.K. RPI M/M May 0.40% 0.40% 0.50%
08:30 GBP U.K. RPI Y/Y May 4.30% 4.30% 4.50%
08:30 GBP U.K. RPI - X M/M May 0.40% 0.40% 0.50%
08:30 GBP U.K. RPI - X Y/Y May 3.30% 3.30% 3.60%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial prod’n M/M Apr -0.80% 0.20% 0.40% 0.50%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial prod’n Y/Y Apr 2.80% 4.40% 3.70% 4%
12:30 USD Treasury’s Paulson speaks
16:00 EUR ECB’s Mersch speaks
16:30 USD Alan Greenspan speaks
18:00 USD Fed budget May -70.0 B -42.9 B

http://www.actionforex.com/general_information/forex_newsletters/forex_newsletter_200507301487/